Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 13.978801 17.070159 20.505000 24.579532 29.255161 34.426961 40.553435
2025-10-26 9.737958 13.770894 18.745995 25.222713 33.312279 42.961613 55.210476
2025-11-02 7.031990 11.259175 16.940771 24.893152 35.472948 48.792493 66.527287
2025-11-09 5.404419 9.667531 15.840072 25.017009 37.860984 54.725730 78.010443
2025-11-16 4.182354 8.327670 14.765295 24.875316 39.671420 59.814146 88.486613
2025-11-23 3.165639 7.040843 13.498367 24.193922 40.521278 63.502689 97.134152
2025-11-30 2.657581 6.493262 13.268971 24.981250 43.461133 70.147635 110.027826
2025-12-07 2.077692 5.653455 12.395521 24.602431 44.549671 74.135477 119.311597
2025-12-14 1.702384 5.119564 11.954290 24.843730 46.551176 79.484647 130.686912
2025-12-21 1.252922 4.278818 10.788572 23.679795 46.171767 81.198158 136.784281
2025-12-28 1.062578 3.995533 10.653051 24.305805 48.724378 87.443042 149.756893
2026-01-04 0.878175 3.665101 10.359697 24.591928 50.694361 92.836856 161.611566
2026-01-11 0.715431 3.354188 10.094131 24.978690 52.998984 99.083331 175.362598
2026-01-18 0.596774 3.132721 9.996177 25.693651 55.949640 106.541214 191.337172
2026-01-25 0.451176 2.744625 9.421721 25.363425 56.976231 110.888041 202.595349
2026-02-01 0.354535 2.479485 9.091265 25.489359 58.821042 116.633737 216.222375
2026-02-08 0.269475 2.203027 8.665583 25.345612 60.124332 121.493974 228.561311
2026-02-15 0.190187 1.883097 8.036157 24.654225 60.302054 124.409877 237.817588
2026-02-22 0.159027 1.791195 8.052861 25.453095 63.439980 132.551548 255.845811
2026-03-01 0.113893 1.565704 7.598945 25.068734 64.172097 136.487354 267.027665
2026-03-08 0.087631 1.433949 7.413180 25.313565 66.186783 142.756629 282.261027
2026-03-15 0.053507 1.174473 6.704899 24.132516 65.141410 143.459912 288.118980
2026-03-22 0.042679 1.111034 6.692876 24.767753 67.973128 151.312343 306.331717